It’s often been said that with things you are unsure of your first guess is right about 80% of the time. Whether this is completely true or not I don’t know, but I’m sure that there had to be some heavy research done to come up with this statistic. And so I have often used the first guess theory whenever I run into a situation that I am unsure of…even in poker.
And poker is one game where second guesses will creep into your head a lot so it really puts the whole 80% theory to the test. Especially when you’re on the river without the nuts and facing a decision on whether or not to call your opponent’s raise. In fact, these situations bring up third, fourth, and fifth guesses as well which puts even more strain on your mind.
A lot of times I try to go with my first guess since, as stated before, it’s right about 80% of the time. But poker involves lots of critical thinking so you can’t just fire out a bet or fold on the river without putting much thought into the decision. So using your first guess becomes even more complicated in situations where there is no clear choice available.
Still I like to use my first instinct whenever possible simply because of the fact that it’s all too easy to sit there and convince yourself that you should make this play or that play after sitting around and thinking about it forever. Of course there are many players who would probably attest to this line of thinking and have the success to show for it.